Never thought about that state line limitation.
Looking at the overlay of the circle on the map, I can see that would clip off roughly half the area of the circle!
I don't own any caches in the search area, but I do have 182 finds; pretty close to your calculation of 177, however 55 of my finds are archived.
Also have to thank you for the heads-up regarding the Lost and Found events; didn't realize that CCEs were going under that heading. As far as I knew Lost and Found was an obsolete cache type, so that's why I didn't bother including it.
As for Wherigos, I'm generally not interested in them, and they won't run on my Garmin anyhow, so that's why I don't include them.
Many thanks for making such quick work of my problem!